Polls Underestimated Trump Support In Ohio

Nov 5, 2020

In this week's episode of Snollygoster, Ohio's politics podcast from WOSU, hosts Mike Thompson and Steve Brown discuss how President Trump won again in Ohio by a clear margin, despite polster predictions of a toss-up. Ohio State University political scientist Herb Asher joins the show.

Listen to Snollygoster on the WOSU Public Media mobile app, on Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. And make sure to leave a rating and review!

In this week's episode:

Poll Position

After months of polls that showed Ohio was going to be a tight race between President Trump and Joe Biden, it wasn’t. It was 2016 all over again.

President Trump won by 8 points on Tuesday, just like he did in 2016 by about 400,000 votes. Joe Biden dominated in the urban areas just like Hillary Clinton did in 2016, but Trump swamped Biden in the rural areas like he did in 2016.

Biden did close the gap in the suburbs, but Trump deepened his base of support among working-class Ohioans. The state's 18 electoral votes will go to the Republican nominee for president for the fourth time in the last 6 cycles.

The difference this time is that it may not matter. As of right now, Trump is in real danger of losing the presidency, and it looks like Ohio’s days as a swing state bellwether are over.

Snollygoster Of The Week

This week, Ohio voters defied all the odds, defied most expectations, and defied the pollsters and pundits.

So, for waiting in lines for hours, for correctly filling out and mailing in or dropping off their ballots, and for doing their part for democracy – and making us look at least a little bit foolish – Ohio voters get our Snollygoster of the Week award.

Send questions and comments to snollygoster@wosu.org.