State income tax collections have been down for the last two months, leading some to wonder whether Ohio will end the fiscal year with a surplus – or in the red.
Personal income tax collections were off by nearly six percent in December, and more than seven percent below estimates last month. Budget director Kimberly Murnieks says she thinks the 2017 federal tax law change could be the reason.
“That cap [on] the amount of state and local taxes that can be deducted on your federal taxes – that really eliminated the incentives to pay your entire liability at that time,” Murnieks says.
While the fiscal-year-to-date personal income tax take is more than two percent below forecasts, Murnieks says the sales tax is performing well and Medicaid caseloads are down. She still expects the state will have a surplus at the close of the fiscal year in June.